Augusto Cury
Renan Santos
Ronaldo Caiado
Flávio Bolsonaro
Romeu ZemaMarket analysis
Analysis generated Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket prices Augusto Cury at 51% to finish third, a sharp repricing after the psychiatrist-author surged to 11% in Monday's Nexus poll (from 2% in July) and 7.8% in AtlasIntel, riding strong television debate performance and social-media reach. Ronaldo Caiado, the established PSD right-winger, holds 31% odds despite once leading third-place contention in earlier summer surveys; Renan Santos (Missão), the insurgent anti-establishment candidate who previously traded as a lead contender, has fallen to 19%, undermined by perceptions of excessive aggression in the August 23 debate.
As of September 11, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place are: Augusto Cury: 46%, Renan Santos: 43%, Ronaldo Caiado: 5%, Flávio Bolsonaro: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Updated 5h ago
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