Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Flávio Bolsonaro
Renan Santos
Ronaldo Caiado
Michelle BolsonaroMarket analysis
Analysis generated Jul 10, 2026
Polymarket prices Lula at 62% to win the presidency, but recent polling reveals a more complex picture: he leads the first round by 8–15 points but faces a statistical dead heat in a runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro (45–47% vs 42–45% in late-June surveys). A July 8 poll shows them technically tied in a second round. June polls show the gap in the first round widened after audio leaks tied Flávio to a disgraced banker, but since a runoff is near-certain under Brazil's two-round system, fragmentation among minor right-wing candidates (Caiado, Zema) that helps Lula in round one becomes a liability in round two as those votes consolidate behind Flávio.
LeadingAs of July 13, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Brazil Presidential Election are: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 61%, Flávio Bolsonaro: 24%, Renan Santos: 10%, Ronaldo Caiado: 2%, Michelle Bolsonaro: 1%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Brazil Presidential Election is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Brazil Presidential Election
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