Bank of England decision in September?
Updated 3 weeks ago
Every market on this event is off the board on Polymarket, with no outcome recorded yet. Prices below are the last traded values, not live odds.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 15, 2026
The Bank of England is 94% favored by Polymarket to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17, with just 6% odds on a 25 basis-point hike. The July decision was a 6-3 hold, with three members voting to raise rates to 4%, signaling internal tension around energy-driven inflation that is projected to peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026. August CPI data releases September 16, the day before the vote, representing the last major economic signal before policymakers decide; inflation has already risen from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July. Governor Bailey's late-August remarks flagged subdued second-round wage effects, suggesting the bar for moving beyond a hold remains high despite hawkish dissent.
Before Bank of England decision in September? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: No change: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
