Updated 2 months ago
If Cape Verde advance past Argentina in the Argentina vs Cape Verde soccer tie in the Round Of 32 of the FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Argentina advanceson Jul 4, 2026
WinnerWhat happened
Resolved 2026-07-04
Argentina advanced to the Round of 16 with a dramatic 3-2 extra-time victory over Cape Verde in their 2026 World Cup Round of 32 match in Miami on July 4. The defending champions survived an extraordinary underdog performance, with Cape Verde equalizing twice before Cristian Romero's 111th-minute header—deflecting off Diney Borges—settled the game. Lionel Messi scored first for Argentina, while Deroy Duarte and Sidny Lopes Cabral equalized for the island nation in one of the tournament's greatest shocks.
Before Argentina vs Cape Verde resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Argentina advances: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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