Javier Milei
Axel Kicillof
Sergio Massa
Dante Gebel
Cristina Fernández de KirchnerMarket analysis
Analysis generated Sep 16, 2026
Polymarket prices incumbent Javier Milei at 53% to win the October 2027 presidential election, with Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof trailing at 36%—a 17-point gap despite Milei's underwater approval ratings and persistent household economic concerns. Recent polling shows Milei narrowly ahead in runoff scenarios against Kicillof (43% vs. 41.6%), but a plurality of voters prefer a new Peronist administration when given the choice, suggesting high volatility if economic conditions deteriorate further before voting.
As of October 11, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Argentina Presidential Election Winner are: Javier Milei: 55%, Axel Kicillof: 33%, Sergio Massa: 7%, Dante Gebel: 2%, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: 1%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Argentina Presidential Election Winner is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Updated 2h ago
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