Updated 6 days ago
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.13% on Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winners: 4.9% or above, 4.92% or above, 4.86% or above, 4.88% or above, 4.98% or above, 5.02% or above, 5% or above, 5.04% or above, 5.06% or above, 4.96% or above, 4.94% or aboveon Oct 5, 2026
Before 5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: 4.9% or above: 99%, 4.92% or above: 99%, 4.86% or above: 99%, 4.88% or above: 99%, 4.98% or above: 75%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has resolved on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
