Traditional polls provide a snapshot of the past. Prediction markets forecast the future. By aggregating millions of dollars in real-money trades across Polymarket and Kalshi, this page provides a unified, real-time view of who is favored to win the White House in 2028.
General Election
| Candidate |  |  | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
 J.D. Vance | 16% | 20% | 3.9pp |
 Marco Rubio | 18% | 14% | 4.0pp |
 Gavin Newsom | 11% | 12% | 0.8pp |
 Jon Ossoff | 10% | 8% | 1.5pp |
 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9% | 8% | 0.6pp |
Democratic Nomination
| Candidate | | | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 19% | 20% | 0.8pp |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 15% | 14% | 0.6pp |
 Jon Ossoff | 15% | 14% | 0.9pp |
 Kamala Harris | 8% | 7% | 1.6pp |
 Pete Buttigieg | 5% | 5% | — |
Republican Nomination
| Candidate | | | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 40% | 41% | 1.3pp |
| Marco Rubio | 31% | 28% | 3.2pp |
 Ron DeSantis | 5% | 3% | 2.3pp |
 Tucker Carlson | 3% | 3% | — |
 Donald J. Trump Jr. | 4% | 1% | 2.2pp |
Prediction markets operate on a simple premise: traders put their own money on the line. This "skin in the game" mechanism forces participants to filter out personal bias and trade based on objective assessment. The result is a continuously updating probability that aggregates diverse information — insider knowledge, local sentiment, polling data, and advanced statistical modeling — into a single, digestible metric: the trading price.
While a traditional poll takes days to field, analyze, and publish, prediction markets react to breaking news in real time. When a candidate announces, drops out, or gets indicted, you can watch the odds move within minutes. This responsiveness makes prediction markets uniquely valuable during a primary season where the field can shift overnight.
The 2028 cycle is the first truly open presidential race with mature prediction market infrastructure on both sides. Polymarket draws global crypto-native traders with deep liquidity pools, while Kalshi attracts US-based participants through its CFTC-regulated framework. Together they represent over $2.85B in real-money volume on the 2028 race alone.
By tracking both platforms simultaneously, PredictMarketCap reveals price discrepancies that neither platform shows in isolation. A wider spread between Polymarket and Kalshi often signals breaking news that has been priced into the faster-moving crypto markets but hasn't yet saturated the regulated domestic exchange — or it highlights an arbitrage opportunity between the two ecosystems.
KalshiCFTC-regulated exchange accepting US bank deposits. Available to US residents. Markets settle in USD. The user base is predominantly domestic, so Kalshi odds reflect American political sentiment with regulatory compliance baked in.
PolymarketDecentralized, crypto-native platform settling in USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Draws global liquidity and typically sees higher trading volumes. International traders bring diverse perspectives on US politics that domestic-only platforms miss.
The primary process often generates more volatility than the general election. Market traders closely watch state-level legislative wins, fundraising totals, debate performances, and endorsement chains. A single debate moment or endorsement from a key political figure can swing nomination odds by double digits within hours.
With both parties holding open primaries in 2028, the nomination contests are where the most dynamic price action will occur. The Republican field features early activity around figures testing the post-Trump landscape, while Democratic markets are pricing the competitive dynamics of a party choosing its next standard-bearer without an incumbent.
PredictMarketCap tracks these shifts across platforms so you don't need to check Polymarket and Kalshi separately. When odds diverge between platforms, it's often the earliest signal that new information is being priced in.
Merging a regulated USD order book with a global crypto order book requires more than simple averaging. Our AI system ingests live API feeds from both Kalshi and Polymarket, automatically matching equivalent candidates across platforms even when naming conventions differ (e.g., "J.D. Vance" vs "JD Vance"). It normalizes contract rules to ensure apples-to-apples comparison, then applies volume-weighted averaging that dampens low-liquidity spikes while emphasizing the deepest order books. The result is the most accurate, noise-free election forecast available on the web.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where US residents trade with US Dollars. Polymarket is a crypto-native platform where contracts settle in USDC stablecoins and draw global liquidity. Kalshi captures domestic sentiment while Polymarket reflects international views. PredictMarketCap compares odds across both so you can see where they agree and where they diverge.
A prediction market price represents the market's implied probability. If a candidate's share trades at $0.35, the market prices them at a 35% chance of winning. These prices move in real time as traders buy and sell based on new information like polls, endorsements, fundraising totals, and breaking news.
Differences arise because each platform has a distinct user base, liquidity pool, and regulatory environment. Polymarket draws global crypto-native traders while Kalshi attracts US-based participants. Breaking news may be priced into one platform faster than the other, creating temporary spreads that represent arbitrage opportunities.
Kalshi is fully regulated by the CFTC and available to US residents. Polymarket settled with the CFTC in 2024 and currently restricts US-based trading on most political markets. Always check each platform's current terms of service and your local regulations before trading.
Our system ingests live API feeds from both Kalshi and Polymarket, uses AI to match equivalent markets across platforms, and normalizes contract structures to ensure we compare like-for-like. The odds shown are volume-weighted averages that dampen low-liquidity spikes while emphasizing the deepest order books.
