| Outcome |  Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
S SpaceXWinner | - | 100%settled | - |
C CerebrasWinner | - | 100%settled | - |
J Jersey Mike'sWinner | - | 100%settled | - |
M MedlineWinner | - | 100%settled | - |
 SHEINWinner | 100%— | 100%— | - |
 Anthropic | 80%— | 89%— | 9.5pp spread |
 Oura | - | 80%— | - |
 Remote | 0%— | - | - |
 Discord | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 WHOOP | 0%— | - | - |
 Fannie Mae | 0%— | - | - |
 OpenAI | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Kraken | - | 0%— | - |
 Applied Intuition | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Databricks | 0%— | 0%— | - |
D DeepSeek | - | 0%— | - |
 Freddie Mac | 0%— | - | - |
 Rippling | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Anduril | 0%— | - | - |
P Plaid | - | 0%— | - |
G Gopuff | - | 0%— | - |
 Ripple Labs | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Glean | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Vanta | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Ledger | 0%— | - | - |
 Mistral AI | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Epic Games | 0%— | - | - |
 Ramp | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Celonis | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 ByteDance | 0%— | - | - |
 Canva | 0%— | - | - |
B Bloomberg | - | 0%— | - |
S Skims | - | 0%— | - |
 Revolut | 0%— | - | - |
 Waymo | 0%— | - | - |
 Anduril Industries | 0%— | 0%— | - |
B Beast Industries | - | 0%— | - |
 Stripe | 0%— | 0%— | - |
A Airwallex | - | 0%— | - |
 Deel | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Anysphere (Cursor) | 0%— | 0%— | - |
 Brex | 0%— | 0%— | - |
x xAI | - | 0%— | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Number of IPOs in a Given Year has resolved with SpaceX, Cerebras, Jersey Mike's, Medline and SHEIN as the winners. $7.30M was traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on 43 outcomes. This page preserves the final odds comparison for historical reference.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
If [OUTCOME] confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
