What happened
During Trump's May 14-15, 2026 bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Trump mentioned "Peng" when inviting Xi and his wife First Lady Peng Liyuan to visit the White House on September 24. The Polymarket event resolved to "Yes" on the "Peng" outcome after Trump spoke the term at bilateral events including the state banquet and opening remarks.
Sources: aljazeera.com · en.wikipedia.org · cnbc.com · cnn.com
Written May 21, 2026 from news coverage · final prices in the table below
| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
P PengWinner | 100%settled | - | - |
F Friend of mine |
Background, methodology, and platform context
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping? has resolved with Peng as the winner. $56.58M was traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on 33 outcomes. This page preserves the final odds comparison for historical reference.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If Donald Trump says Windmill as part of Bilateral Meeting with the President of the People's Republic of China, inclusive of greeting , then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
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T Tariff | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
 Taiwan / Tibet | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
S Six Seven | 0%settled | - | - |
O Oil / Gas / Gasoline | - | 0%settled | - |
C Ceasefire | - | 0%settled | - |
B Biden | - | 0%settled | - |
 Japan / Korea | 0%settled | - | - |
H Hong Kong | 0%settled | - | - |
 Iran / Iranian | - | 0%settled | - |
E Event does not qualify | - | 0%settled | - |
I Investment / Invested | - | 0%settled | - |
H Hantavirus | - | 0%settled | - |
M Manufacturing | - | 0%settled | - |
P Panda | - | 0%settled | - |
M Made in America / American Made | - | 0%settled | - |
H Hottest | - | 0%settled | - |
M Middle East | - | 0%settled | - |
S Stock Market | - | 0%settled | - |
C Crypto / Bitcoin | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
R Rare Earth / Mineral | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
A AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
N Nuclear | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
T TikTok | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
F Fentanyl | 0%settled | - | - |
Iran | 0%settled | - | - |
S Strait / Hormuz | 0%settled | - | - |
C Covid / Pandemic | 0%settled | - | - |
T Transgender | 0%settled | - | - |
S Sleepy Joe | 0%settled | - | - |
S Soybean | 0%settled | - | - |
G Great Wall | 0%settled | - | - |
