This analysis predates a shift — No now leads. The live table below has current odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are in rare lockstep here: Polymarket prices "Curry leaves Golden State" at just 4% (96% stays), while Kalshi's "Stays with Golden State or Retires" sits at 95%, with Boston (5%) the only notable alternative-destination outcome. Reporting backs this up — after Golden State missed out on LeBron James, insiders describe "mutual interest" in a Curry extension once he becomes eligible for a new two-year, ~$137M deal on Aug. 29, and team sources call a trade request "very tough to imagine." Both books are effectively treating Curry-to-elsewhere as a non-starter this cycle.
Analysis written Aug 12, 2026 · prices checked Aug 16 · odds in the tables below are live
| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
N No | - | - | |
 Boston | - | - | |
 Yes | - | - | |
 Miami | - | - | |
 Philadelphia | - | - | |
 Washington | - | - | |
 Atlanta | - | - | |
 Indiana | - | - | |
 Chicago | - | - | |
 Portland | - | - | |
 Houston | - | - | |
 Denver | - | - | |
 San Antonio | - | - | |
 Dallas | - | - | |
 Detroit | - | - | |
 Utah | - | - | |
 Brooklyn | - | - | |
 Cleveland | - | - | |
 Phoenix | - | - | |
 Los Angeles Clippers | - | - | |
 Orlando | - | - | |
 Toronto | - | - | |
 Charlotte | - | - | |
 Oklahoma City | - | - | |
 New York | - | - | |
 Minnesota | - | - | |
 Sacramento | - | - | |
 New Orleans | - | - | |
 Memphis | - | - | |
 Milwaukee | - | - | |
 Los Angeles Lakers | - | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Stephen Curry to Leave Golden State Warriors prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $5.25M in combined trading volume across 31 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Stephen Curry is not rostered by the Golden State Warriors before October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Stephen Curry retires, is released, is traded, or is otherwise not a member of the Golden State Warriors official player roster, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Stephen Curry is listed on the official roster of the Golden State Warriors as of October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of his playing status, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA, Golden State Warriors, and/or Stephen Curry; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Steph Curry's next team is [OUTCOME] before Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
