| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
A Above 120 | - | - | |
A Above 140 | - | - | |
A Above 150 | - | - | |
1 140-159 | - | - | |
1 160-179 | - | - | |
A Above 160 | - | - | |
A Above 170 | - | - | |
1 180-199 | - | - | |
A Above 180 | - | - | |
A Above 190 | - | - | |
1 120-139 | - | - | |
2 200 or more | - | - | |
A Above 210 | - | - | |
A Above 200 | - | - | |
< <100 | - | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare SpaceX launches in 2026 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $869.3K in combined trading volume across 15 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If SpaceX has more than 170 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
