
| Outcome | Spread | ||
|---|---|---|---|
P Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | - | - | |
B Before Sep 1, 2026 | - | - | |
P Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by August 31? | - | - | |
B Before May 1, 2026 | - | 1%settled | - |
B Before Jun 1, 2026 | - | 0%settled | - |
B Before Aug 1, 2026 | - | 0%settled | - |
B Before Jul 1, 2026 | - | 0%settled | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $727.4K in combined trading volume across 7 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.