The platforms diverge sharply on who leads: Kalshi's favorite, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (24%), doesn't even crack Polymarket's top tier, while Polymarket's leader, UNRWA (10%), is absent from Kalshi's top list — reflecting different trader bases and candidate menus rather than disagreement on the same outcome. Where the same names do appear, the crowds converge almost exactly: both price Zelenskyy at 8% and Navalnaya at 8%.
Analysis written Jul 13, 2026 · odds in the tables below are live
| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
S Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | - | - | |
D Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | - | - | |
S Save the Children | - | - | |
S Shehbaz Sharif | - | - | |
 Yulia Navalnaya | 2.5pp spread | ||
 Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine | - | - | |
 Volodymyr Zelenskyy | - | ||
I International Criminal Court | - | - | |
 Pope Leo XIV | 1.9pp spread | ||
 UNRWA | 2.4pp spread | ||
 Donald Trump | 0.3pp spread | ||
M Minneapolis | - | - | |
 Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | - | - | |
C Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | - | - | |
N Narges Mohammadi | - | - | |
 International Court of Justice (ICJ) | 1.0pp spread | ||
C Committee to Protect Journalists | - | - | |
S Sam Altman | - | - | |
 Narendra Modi | - | - | |
 Julian Assange | - | - | |
 António Guterres | - | - | |
E Elon Musk | 1.7pp spread | ||
 Greta Thunberg | - | - | |
E European Union | - | - | |
D Dario Amodei | - | - | |
F Francesca Albanese | - | - | |
 Ahmed al-Sharaa | - | - | |
 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | - | - | |
 Khaled Mashal | - | - | |
 Charlie Kirk | - | - | |
 Mohammed bin Salman | - | - | |
 Xi Jinping | - | - | |
 Vladimir Putin | - | - | |
 Benjamin Netanyahu | - | - |
Yulia NavalnayaKalshiPolymarketCost: 98¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 2.5pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).
View all arbsBackground, methodology, and platform context
Compare Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.3pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $23.52M in combined trading volume across 34 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If [OUTCOME] wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
