| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
C Craig Counsell | 20.0pp spread | ||
W Walt Weiss | 20.5pp spread | ||
T Tony Vitello | 38.0pp spread | ||
P Pat Murphy | 2.2pp spread | ||
C Clayton McCullough | 7.0pp spread | ||
D Don Kelly | 14.0pp spread | ||
T Torey Lovullo | 12.8pp spread | ||
D Don Mattingly | - | - | |
O Oliver Marmol | 5.9pp spread | ||
C Craig Stammen | 6.3pp spread | ||
T Terry Francona | 2.3pp spread | ||
W Warren Schaeffer | 1.4pp spread | ||
B Blake Butera | 2.4pp spread | ||
R Rob Thomson | 0.8pp spread | ||
C Carlos Mendoza | 1.6pp spread | ||
D Dave Roberts | 0.2pp spread | ||
T Tie/Co-Winners | - | - |
Tony VitelloKalshiPolymarketCost: 62¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 38.0pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).
View all arbsBackground, methodology, and platform context
Compare MLB NL Manager of the Year prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms currently disagree by an average of 8.0pp, with the largest spread reaching 38.0pp. These price differences can signal arbitrage opportunities or reflect different trader sentiment. With $477.6K in combined trading volume across 17 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If [OUTCOME] wins the Pro Baseball National League Manager of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
