| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
K Kevin McGonigle | 0.5pp spread | ||
M Munetaka Murakami | 6.0pp spread | ||
T Travis Bazzana | 9.3pp spread | ||
L Lazaro Montes | - | - | |
H Hagen Smith | - | - | |
S Samuel Basallo | 2.9pp spread | ||
C Colt Emerson | 2.6pp spread | ||
P Parker Messick | 3.9pp spread | ||
P Payton Tolle | 2.0pp spread | ||
K Kazuma Okamoto | 1.7pp spread | ||
T Trey Yesavage | 0.6pp spread | ||
C Chase DeLauter | - | ||
T Tie/Co-Winners | - | - | |
G Gage Jump | - | - | |
S Spencer Jones Jr. | - | - | |
W Walbert Ureña | - | - | |
E Emmanuel Rodriguez | - | - | |
N Noah Schultz | - | - | |
B Braden Montgomery | - | - | |
B Brice Matthews | 0.4pp spread | ||
S Spencer Jones | - | - | |
W Walker Jenkins | 0.5pp spread | ||
C Connelly Early | 0.6pp spread | ||
M Max Clark | 0.8pp spread | ||
C Carson Williams | 0.9pp spread | ||
S Sam Antonacci | 0.9pp spread | ||
G George Lombard Jr. | 0.9pp spread | ||
C Carter Jensen | 0.9pp spread | ||
C Carlos Lagrange | - | - | |
T Tatsuya Imai | 0.9pp spread | ||
D Dylan Beavers | - | - | |
L Leo De Vries | - | - | |
J Josue Briceño | - | - | |
S Sebastian Walcott | - | - |
Travis BazzanaKalshiPolymarketCost: 91¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 9.3pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).
View all arbsBackground, methodology, and platform context
Compare MLB AL Rookie of the Year prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 1.1pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $2.91M in combined trading volume across 34 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If [OUTCOME] wins the Pro Baseball American League Rookie of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
