Since this was written, the market has moved further toward Cam Schlittler — now ~89% (was ~67%). Live numbers in the table below.
Both books agree Schlittler is the favorite but diverge on the margin: Polymarket has him at 72% to Cease's 24% (a 48-point spread), while Kalshi is tighter at 67%-28% (39 points). The gap reflects how volatile this race has been all summer — Cease has repeatedly closed within a percentage point of Schlittler on strikeout dominance before Schlittler's ERA edge and volume of quality starts pushed him back in front, so far-dated books can easily diverge on how much residual chance to assign the challenger.
Analysis written Aug 30, 2026 · prices checked Sep 2 · odds in the tables below are live
| Outcome |  Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
C Cam Schlittler | 19.1pp spread | ||
D Dylan Cease | 33.1pp spread | ||
B Bryce Miller | 32.9pp spread | ||
J Jacob deGrom | 10.5pp spread | ||
M Max Fried | 8.1pp spread | ||
P Parker Messick | 5.0pp spread | ||
P Pablo Lopez | 2.5pp spread | ||
J Jose Soriano | 3.5pp spread | ||
G Gavin Williams | 2.0pp spread | ||
L Luis Gil | - | - | |
D Drew Rasmussen | 1.9pp spread | ||
K Kevin Gausman | 0.7pp spread | ||
T Tarik Skubal | 0.3pp spread | ||
K Kris Bubic | - | - | |
S Shane Bieber | - | - | |
T Tanner Bibee | - | - | |
Y Yusei Kikuchi | - | - | |
T Trey Yesavage | - | - | |
M Michael Wacha | - | - | |
S Shane McClanahan | - | - | |
L Luis Castillo | - | - | |
A Aroldis Chapman | - | - | |
B Brayan Bello | - | - | |
T Tie/Co-Winners | - | - | |
C Casey Mize | - | - | |
T Trevor Rogers | - | - | |
J Jack Flaherty | - | - | |
G Grayson Rodriguez | - | - | |
G Garrett Crochet | 0.1pp spread | ||
L Logan Gilbert | 0.1pp spread | ||
B Bryan Woo | 0.3pp spread | ||
S Sonny Gray | 0.3pp spread | ||
G George Kirby | 0.4pp spread | ||
C Cole Ragans | 0.6pp spread | ||
R Ranger Suarez | 0.7pp spread | ||
G Gerrit Cole | 0.9pp spread | ||
K Kyle Bradish | 0.9pp spread | ||
H Hunter Brown | 0.9pp spread | ||
N Nathan Eovaldi | 0.9pp spread | ||
J Joe Ryan | 0.9pp spread | ||
M MacKenzie Gore | 0.9pp spread | ||
C Carlos Rodón | 0.9pp spread | ||
S Sean Burke | - | - |
Dylan CeaseKalshiPolymarketCost: 67¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 33.1pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).
View all arbsBackground, methodology, and platform context
Compare MLB 2026 AL Cy Young Award Winner prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms currently disagree by an average of 3.0pp, with the largest spread reaching 33.1pp. These price differences can signal arbitrage opportunities or reflect different trader sentiment. With $3.43M in combined trading volume across 43 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If [OUTCOME] wins the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
