| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
 Haley StevensWinner | 100%settled | - | - |
A At least 44%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 42%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 41%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 46%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 43%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 47%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 40%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 45%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 48%Winner | - | 100%— | - |
A At least 49% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 57% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 50% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 58% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 54% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 60% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 51% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 55% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 53% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 56% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 59% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 62% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 52% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 63% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 61% | - | 0%— | - |
A At least 64% | - | 0%— | - |
 Abdul El-Sayed | 0%settled | - | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) Winner has resolved with Haley Stevens, At least 44%, At least 42%, At least 41%, At least 46%, At least 43%, At least 47%, At least 40%, At least 45% and At least 48% as the winners. $176.4K was traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on 27 outcomes. This page preserves the final odds comparison for historical reference.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
