
| Outcome | Spread | ||
|---|---|---|---|
D December 31 | - | - | |
B Before Dec 1, 2026 | - | - | |
B Before Nov 1, 2026 | - | - | |
B Before Oct 1, 2026 | - | - | |
S September 30 | - | - | |
B Before Sep 1, 2026 | - | - | |
J June 30 | 2%settled | - | - |
A August 31 | - | - | |
B Before Jul 1, 2026 | - | 1%settled | - |
B Before May 1, 2026 | - | 0%settled | - |
B Before Aug 1, 2026 | - | 0%settled | - |
J July 31 | 0%settled | - | - |
B Before Jun 1, 2026 | - | 0%settled | - |
M May 31 | 0%settled | - | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Kash Patel exits FBI Director position prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $482.0K in combined trading volume across 14 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director [OUTCOME], then the market resolves to Yes.
Kash Patel must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.