Since this was written, the market has moved further toward 25 bps increase — now ~100% (was ~88%). Live numbers in the table below.
Polymarket (88%) and Kalshi (86%) both point strongly to a 25bps hike at the September 16 meeting, with "no change" a distant second at 12% on each book — tight cross-platform agreement that mirrors CME FedWatch pricing. The consensus reflects hawkish momentum since July's 9-3 hold, as three regional Fed presidents pushed for a hike and August CPI came in at 3.4% annually amid Iran-linked energy price pressure, prompting CNBC and J.P. Morgan strategists to flag a hike as the base case heading into Chair Warsh's decision.
Analysis written Sep 16, 2026 · odds in the tables below are live
| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 25 bps increase | 100%settled | 88%settled | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Fed Decision in September 2026 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $312.95M in combined trading volume across 5 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
N No change | 0%settled | 12%settled | - |
2 25 bps decrease | 0%settled | 1%settled | - |
5 50+ bps increase | 0%settled | 1%settled | - |
5 50+ bps decrease | 0%settled | 1%settled | - |
