This analysis predates a shift — No change now leads. The live table below has current odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are essentially in lockstep on the October 28 FOMC decision: both price a hold at 53% and a 25bp hike at 48%, a near coin-flip that reflects the same underlying data. The Fed just raised rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% at its September meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, citing persistently elevated inflation, and traders on both venues see roughly even odds the committee follows through with a second consecutive hike versus pausing to assess the impact.
Analysis written Sep 17, 2026 · prices checked Oct 14 · odds in the tables below are live
| Outcome |  Polymarket | Kalshi |  Predict.fun | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
N No change | - | 0.1pp spread | ||
F Fed maintains rate | - | - | - | |
2 25 bps increase | - | 1.5pp spread | ||
5 50+ bps increase | - | 0.5pp spread | ||
2 25 bps decrease | 0.7pp spread | |||
5 50+ bps decrease | 0.9pp spread |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Federal Reserve Decision in October 2026 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.6pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $51.19M in combined trading volume across 6 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
