Polymarket and Kalshi are in near-perfect agreement that the Fed holds rates at its July 29 meeting, pricing "no change" at 96% on both venues, with a 25bp hike given just 4% (Polymarket) and 3% (Kalshi) and cuts barely priced at all. This convergence follows a volatile week: hike odds had spiked mid-July (Kalshi hit 36%, CME's FedWatch topped 46%) on Fed hawkishness and Iran-related oil fears, but the July 14 June CPI report—a surprise 0.4% monthly drop pulling annual inflation to 3.5% versus the 3.8% expected—rapidly deflated the hike trade across both platforms.
Analysis written Jul 16, 2026 · odds in the tables below are live
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Will the Fed make a decision in July 2026? prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.6pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $99.08M in combined trading volume across 5 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
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