| Outcome |  Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
A Above 400,000 | - | - | |
A Above 200,000 | - | - | |
A Above 300,000 | - | - | |
A Above 450,000 | - | - | |
4 400-500k | - | - | |
A Above 500,000 | - | - | |
3 300-400k | - | - | |
5 500-600k | - | - | |
A Above 600,000 | - | - | |
6 600-700k | - | - | |
7 700-800k | - | - | |
> >1m | - | - | |
8 800-900k | - | - | |
9 900k-1m | - | - | |
< <200k | - | - | |
2 200-300k | - | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Number of deportations in 2026 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $224.9K in combined trading volume across 16 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
If the number of ICE removals is [OUTCOME] in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
