What happened
Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election on August 14, 2026, reclaiming his seat for Reform UK with 63.3% of the vote and a majority of 12,784 over Count Binface, confirming what markets had priced at 99% the day before. The UK's main political parties boycotted the contest, which featured a record 34 candidates, as Farage sought to reinforce his standing during a parliamentary standards inquiry over a £5 million donation.
Sources: tendringdc.gov.uk · aljazeera.com · pollcheck.co.uk · itv.com
Written Aug 14, 2026 from news coverage · final prices in the table below
| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nigel FarageWinner | 100%settled | - | - |
 Reform UKWinner |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Clacton by-election winner has resolved with Nigel Farage and Reform UK as the winners. $7.29M was traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on 5 outcomes. This page preserves the final odds comparison for historical reference.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If Count Binface Party wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
| - |
100%settled |
| - |
 Labour Party | - | 0%settled | - |
C Conservative Party | - | 0%settled | - |
 Count Binface Party | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
