| Outcome |  Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Julianne Moore | 4.5pp spread | ||
 Inde Navarrette | 0.5pp spread | ||
 Sandra Hüller | 4.4pp spread | ||
 Renate Reinsve | 2.0pp spread | ||
A Anne hathaway | - | - | |
 Michelle Williams | - | - | |
J Joan Collins | - | - | |
O Olivia Wilde | - | - | |
M Mikey Madison | - | - | |
C Cynthia Erivo | - | - | |
P Penélope Cruz | - | - | |
T Tie | - | - | |
N Natalie Portman | - | - | |
K Kirsten Dunst | - | - | |
S Scarlett Johansson | - | - | |
S Shailene Woodley | - | - | |
D Dakota Johnson | - | - |
Julianne MooreKalshiPolymarketCost: 96¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 4.5pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).
View all arbsBackground, methodology, and platform context
Compare Best Actress at the Oscars 2027 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.7pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $307.2K in combined trading volume across 17 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If [OUTCOME] has won Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
