
Since this was written, the market has moved further toward Marine Le Pen — now ~44% (was ~36%). Live numbers in the table below.
Both books tell the same story: Marine Le Pen leads (36% Polymarket, 40% Kalshi) with Édouard Philippe a clear second (25%/28%), a gap that has held since Paris's Court of Appeal in July upheld her embezzlement conviction but trimmed her ineligibility enough that she immediately confirmed she'll run in 2027.
Analysis written Sep 16, 2026 · prices checked Oct 14 · odds in the tables below are live
| Outcome | Spread | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Marine Le Pen | 1.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Édouard Philippe | 1.5pp spread | ||||
![]() David Lisnard | 0.8pp spread | ||||
![]() Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 0.5pp spread | ||||
![]() François Hollande | 4.0pp spread | ||||
![]() Raphaël Glucksmann | 1.0pp spread | ||||
![]() Christine Lagarde | 2.0pp spread | ||||
![]() Gabriel Attal | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Bruno Retailleau | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Jordan Bardella | 0.8pp spread | ||||
![]() Sarah Knafo | 0.3pp spread | ||||
![]() Dominique de Villepin | 0.2pp spread | ||||
![]() Éric Zemmour | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Sébastien Lecornu | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() François Ruffin | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Marine Tondelier | - | - | |||
![]() Karim Bouamrane | - | - | |||
![]() Jean Castex | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() François Asselineau | - | - | |||
![]() Bruno Le Maire | - | - | |||
![]() François Bayrou | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Gérald Darmanin | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Manuel Bompard | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Élisabeth Borne | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Michel Barnier | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Valérie Pécresse | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Xavier Bertrand | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Mathilde Panot | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Carole Delga | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Olivier Faure | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.1pp spread | ||||
![]() Fabien Roussel | - | - | |||
![]() Lucie Castets | - | - | |||
![]() Marion Maréchal | - | - | |||
![]() Clémentine Autain | - | - | |||
![]() Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | - | - | |||
![]() Yannick Jadot | - | - | |||
![]() François Baroin | - | - | |||
![]() Juan Branco | - | - | |||
![]() Clémence Guetté | - | - | |||
![]() Ségolène Royal | - | - |
François HollandeCost: 96¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 4.0pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).
View all arbsBackground, methodology, and platform context
Compare 2027 French Presidential Election prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.3pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $151.46M in combined trading volume across 43 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
If [OUTCOME] wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.