Philadelphia Phillies
Kalshi
PolymarketCost: 88¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 12.5pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).
View all arbsBackground, methodology, and platform context
Compare 2026 MLB NL East Champion prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms currently disagree by an average of 5.3pp, with the largest spread reaching 12.5pp. These price differences can signal arbitrage opportunities or reflect different trader sentiment. With $1.35M in combined trading volume across 5 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB National League East division. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the team whose listed nickname comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named the 2026 National League East division champion per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If [OUTCOME] is the 2026 Pro Baseball NL East Division Winner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
