Colombia’s 2026 presidential race is over, and it came down to the wire. Abelardo de la Espriella — a right-wing, Trump-aligned lawyer — defeated the left’s Iván Cepeda in the June 21 runoff by less than a point, ending eight years of setup for the Colombian left and flipping the presidency away from outgoing leftist Gustavo Petro.
The result (runoff, June 21, 2026). de la Espriella 49.66% to Cepeda’s 48.70% — roughly 250,000 votes out of ~26 million, one of the closest in Colombian history. The National Electoral Council confirmed it June 24; Cepeda conceded; Petro alleged fraud and foreign interference but recognized the result and began the handover. de la Espriella is inaugurated August 7, 2026.
| Candidate | Runoff vote |
|---|---|
| Abelardo de la EspriellaWinnerRight / Trump-aligned | 49.66% |
| Iván CepedaLeft / Historic Pact | 48.70% |
| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Abelardo de la EspriellaWinner | 100%settled | 100%settled | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
2026 Colombian Presidential Election has resolved with Abelardo de la Espriella as the winner. $46.93M was traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on 21 outcomes. This page preserves the final odds comparison for historical reference.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If the winner of || Election || scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is || Candidate/Option ||, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
Colombia elects its president by two-round majority: a first round on May 31, 2026 with thirteen candidates, and a runoff when no one clears 50%. de la Espriella led the first round with 43.7% to Cepeda’s 40.9%, so the two advanced to a head-to-head three weeks later. The runoff compressed a fractured field into a straight left-vs-right choice — and the country split almost exactly down the middle.
The market called the winner. Both Polymarket and Kalshi now settle Abelardo de la Espriella at 100% — the resolved outcome, not a live forecast.
The interesting footnote for prediction-market watchers: the settled price reads like a blowout (~99%), but the vote was a coin flip (49.66–48.70). That’s the difference between a market that has resolved — where the winner is a certainty after the fact — and the genuine uncertainty that existed right up to election night.
Sources: Wikipedia: 2026 Colombian presidential election · AS/COA runoff results. This race is resolved; the market board reflects the settled outcome as of July 3, 2026.
 Iván Cepeda Castro |
0%settled |
0%settled |
| - |
S Santiago Botero | - | 0%settled | - |
F Francia Márquez | - | 0%settled | - |
 Paloma Valencia | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
 Sergio Fajardo (DC) | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
 Gustavo Bolívar (HC) | 0%settled | - | - |
 Vicky Dávila (IND) | 0%settled | - | - |
 Mauricio Cárdenas | 0%settled | - | - |
 Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) | 0%settled | - | - |
 David Luna Sánchez (IND) | 0%settled | - | - |
 Germán Vargas Lleras (RC) | 0%settled | - | - |
 Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) | 0%settled | - | - |
 Enrique Peñalosa | 0%settled | - | - |
 Roy Barreras | 0%settled | - | - |
 Claudia López (IND) | 0%settled | - | - |
 Juan Manuel Galán (NL) | 0%settled | - | - |
 Carlos Felipe Córdoba | 0%settled | - | - |
 Daniel Quintero | 0%settled | - | - |
 Juan Carlos Pinzón | 0%settled | - | - |
 Miguel Uribe Turbay (CD) | 0%settled | - | - |
