What AI events can I trade on prediction markets?

You can trade on frontier model release dates (GPT-6, Claude 5, Gemini updates), which company will have the top-ranked AI model at a given deadline, OpenAI IPO and AI startup acquisition odds, AGI milestone markets, and chip-industry outcomes like NVIDIA becoming the largest company. Polymarket and Kalshi both list active AI markets.

How do prediction markets track the AI race?

Markets like "Which company has the best AI model?" let traders back a specific lab at a specific deadline. The share price is the market-implied probability, so a 40% price on one lab means traders collectively assign it a 40% chance of leading when the market resolves. Odds reprice in real time as new models and benchmark results are released.

Are AI prediction markets accurate?

AI markets aggregate real-money bets from traders who follow labs, benchmarks, and release chatter closely, and they update faster than expert surveys. Like other prediction markets they are best-calibrated near resolution dates; longer-horizon markets such as AGI timelines carry more uncertainty and should be read as sentiment, not schedule.

AI Prediction Market Odds 2026 - Model Releases, AGI & the AI Race

PredictMarketCap

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and Predict.fun.

133,795

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded. Predict.fun volume is measured on-chain from BSC fills (each trade counted once), from the date we began tracking.

$6.77B

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Predict.fun 24h volume is measured on-chain. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$360.37M

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available. Predict.fun: not included.

$1.75B

Polymarket$938.31MOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$739.73MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$70.20MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Predict.fun$3.39MOIEstimated from visible orderbook depth (top-of-book bid/ask dollars). Volume is measured on-chain from BSC fills.

Dashboard Markets Resolved

AI DashboardWho wins the AI race — model release timelines, IPO odds & AGI markets

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All Daily · 1 Monthly · 17

AI Prediction Markets

Browse prediction market odds on artificial intelligence: when the next frontier models like GPT-6 and Claude 5 will ship, which lab holds the top-ranked model, OpenAI IPO and acquisition odds, AGI timelines, and the chip race. AI prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi attach real-money probabilities to the questions the industry argues about, repricing as benchmarks drop and announcements land.