High-volume markets where the outcome surprised predictors the most. Surprise score measures how far off early predictions were from the actual result.
No resolved markets with sufficient price history yet.
We track each market's price trajectory from early trading through to resolution. The surprise score weighs what the market believed near resolution (70%) and what it believed early on (30%) — because a market that was wrong all the way to the end is a bigger upset than one that self-corrected months before.
Markets tagged "Wrong until the end" still had >50% odds on the losing side near resolution. The swing badge shows the largest single price jump, often marking the exact moment reality broke through. Only markets with >$50K volume are included.
